Water resources
Amid intensifying climate pressure, sustainable water management is becoming a decisive condition for economic growth and regional stability.
Despite national reforms, the region still faces a pressing need to deepen dialogue and coordination in order to make effective use of its water potential.
The region’s challenges extend far beyond simple water scarcity, touching on economic stability, public health, social cohesion, and transboundary relations.
Rising temperatures increase the water requirements of agricultural crops, placing further strain on water systems and raising the risk of water scarcity.
Effective groundwater management requires a comprehensive and sustainable approach that includes improved monitoring and regulation of water use. Overlapping and duplicated mandates among government agencies hinder optimal decision-making.
Charts
Scenarios
Unilateral development by upstream countries, combined with a lack of regional cooperation, creates serious risks for Central Asia. The first risk stems from unilateral projects being carried out in Afghanistan. For example, once construction of the Qosh-Tepa Canal is complete, an estimated 10–16 billion m³ of water is expected to be diverted from the Amu Darya each year — a development that would significantly affect water supply for agriculture in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, as well as hydropower generation at the Tuyamuyun Hydro Complex (THC), located on the same border. Inflow to the THC is projected to fall by 25%, water delivery to agriculture to shrink by roughly 6%, and annual hydropower generation to decline by roughly 22%. This illustrates how closely tied the energy sector is to upstream water withdrawals.
This cluster of risks stems from a lack of cooperation in the region — from insufficient trust among states, inadequate capacity of regional institutions, and the absence of effective coordination for the joint use of water resources.Sustainable water management is becoming more complex under the influence of various external factors. Changes in energy prices and geopolitical shifts can sharply increase the cost of pumping water, raising the burden on the economics of water supply, on state budgets, and on end users. Agricultural losses could push countries toward strategies of food self-sufficiency, increasing demand for water and intensifying competition between hydropower and irrigation. Demographic factors also add to the uncertainty: population growth, migration (including from neighboring countries), fertility rates, prosperity, and education all directly affect water consumption.
Mass migration could cause an unexpected surge in demand for water and electricity, creating additional challenges for resource planning and management.Recommendations
- 1 To address the identified challenges and create conditions for the region's sustainable development, governments have focused on four key areas: improving water use efficiency; introducing new financial instruments; digitalizing the water sector; modernizing and rehabilitating existing water infrastructure.
- 2 Governments could revise the rules governing the operation of water infrastructure to find compromise solutions and ensure effective management amid climate change and shrinking glacier reserves. Existing approaches include: joint investment by upstream and downstream countries in reservoirs, the creation of shared infrastructure, and the development of coordinated operating rules; the protection and management of groundwater to partially offset the loss of snow and glacier reserves during the summer and winter seasons.
- 3 The further development of Central Asian countries depends on making the most efficient use of existing water and energy resources amid climate change, population growth, and rising demand. During the Soviet era (1960s–1980s), a unified water-energy system and interconnected infrastructure were built, forming the basis for cooperation and coordinated commitments among the countries of the region. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, these states developed new water-energy relations that accounted for state sovereignty and market principles.
- 4 Many of Central Asia's water facilities — reservoirs, hydropower plants, canals, and water intake structures — are located on the border between two states and are jointly operated or maintained. To manage them effectively, countries conclude bilateral agreements governing joint operation, maintenance, and financing. The key elements of successful cooperation are improved monitoring, water accounting, and transparent data exchange. Digital technologies and remote sensing can complement traditional measurements, improving the completeness and reliability of data.
- 5 Effective water resource management requires revising irrigation norms, optimally allocating water among agricultural crops, and redesigning cropping patterns to reflect local hydro-climatic conditions and market opportunities. This helps not only to reduce water scarcity but also to encourage water conservation and improve agricultural productivity. Additional investment aimed at improving irrigation efficiency is essential for ensuring food security and sustainable economic growth.
- 6 To increase investment in water infrastructure and improve service quality, countries are exploring mechanisms for private-sector participation. Approaches already in use include handing pumping stations over to investors for modernization and operation, as well as managing on-farm irrigation systems at the level of agricultural water-user clusters.
- 7 Reducing water demand and easing water scarcity in the region requires investment in modernizing irrigation infrastructure and adopting advanced technologies such as drip and sprinkler irrigation. Combined with water accounting and the introduction of consumption limits, these measures will help promote more rational water use and reduce losses.
- 8 Existing reservoir infrastructure has considerable potential to improve efficiency through flexible management strategies and data-driven approaches. Research shows, for example, that incorporating seasonal hydrometeorological forecasts into operational decision-making at the Nurek Reservoir could increase annual hydropower generation by 13–14%, while also helping to reduce flood risk. This example demonstrates that transparent, data-driven approaches can simultaneously achieve several goals: optimizing energy supply, managing water risks, and equitably allocating water among competing sectors.